The case study of Tegucigalpa
Tegucigalpa is the capital of Honduras, one of the most vulnerable countries for natural hazards in the world.
A flood risk analysis was conducted following a new comprehensive procedure. It is based on the results of collaborative sessions with the main stakeholders, which are used to develop quantitative risk models. These models are used to obtain frequency-loss curves for different scenarios, including the effect of climate change.
Finally, risk results are included in a Cost-Benefit analysis to justify the need of new structural and non-structural risk reduction measures, promoting a more robust flood risk management.
The innovative procedure applied in Tegucigalpa can be an example of risk quantification based on collaborative work. In addition, the basis of this collaborative procedure can be applied in other natural hazards to quantify the economic benefits along time of risk reduction investments, promoting better risk management.
What is innovative about this case?
In the risk analysis performed in Tegucigalpa, an innovative and complete procedure was applied, including:
1. Collaborative sessions with the main related stakeholders to make a complete identification of potential failure modes in the flood management system, including upstream critical infrastructures (large dams), flood protection structures and emergency management and warning systems.
2. Quantification of flood risks in the center of Tegucigalpa using an integrative frequency-loss profile and quantitative risk models. The effects of climate change and population changes in this profile are also analyzed in different scenarios.
3. Analysis of the impact of proposed structural and non-structural measures on risk profiles of the city center.
4. Using risk results in a Cost-Benefit analysis to compare construction and maintenance costs of the new measures with risk reduction benefits.
In conclusion, the described approach, from collaborative working sessions to risk quantification and cost-benefit analysis, is very innovative and it can be applied to other locations and other types of natural hazards to reinforce the need for structural and non-structural risk reduction measures.